In order to grasp potential passenger demand for this project, forecasts are made for the forecast year when train speedup is achieved (WITH) and when no train speedup is made (WITHOUT). More specifically, transport time reduction by the New Sprinter is added to the transport conditions for the WITH case, while the transport conditions remain the same as the present conditions for the WITHOUT case.
Table 5.5-5 indicates forecast results of different transport means by OD. When seeing the totals of OD subject to forecasting, the railway's share for the year 2003 (WITH) is expected to increase by 3 point, compared to that of WITHOUT. By traffic volume, 1,200 shuttle-passengers per day are expected to increase. The breakdown of this increase derives shifts from the road system (700 passengers) and from airline (500 passengers). When seeing the increase volume of the railway by different ODs, the OD between the Bangkok Metropolitan Region and Chiang Mai accounts for the largest share, or 500 passengers. Nearly 80% of such passengers are shifted from airline transport.
